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Moon Studio Spring Trophy · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 0:2
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Yangon Galacticoswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Mars
Marsoften banned
Rupido · 7 games
57%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
RR · 5 games
60%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Yowe · 4 games
75%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Ken · 4 games
25%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
Yowe · 4 games
25%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ken · 3 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 3 games
33%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
RR · 3 games
33%

Yangon Galacticos

Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Young PH · 4 games
25%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Young PH · 4 games
50%
Anti-Mage
Anti-Mageoften banned
Young PH · 3 games
67%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Young PH · 3 games
67%
Riki
Rikioften banned
Young PH · 2 games
50%
Slark
Slarkoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
0%
Spectre
Spectreoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
0%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
402 picks · 939 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
374 picks · 569 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
326 picks · 608 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
292 picks · 578 bans
56%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
291 picks · 261 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
255 picks · 171 bans
50%
Wraith King
Wraith King
241 picks · 407 bans
56%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
239 picks · 541 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 32%
Hero pool strength53% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 61%
Series resultYangon Galacticos 0:2
Series predictionmissed