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Khaz Modan Cup Season 2 · BO2
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 0:2
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Yangon Galacticoswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Mars
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 15 games
27%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Palos · 15 games
53%
Bane
Bane
RR · 13 games
38%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Tino- · 12 games
58%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
RR · 12 games
33%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
RR · 10 games
40%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 9 games
33%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
RR · 9 games
44%

Yangon Galacticos

Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Ksh · 6 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Young PH · 5 games
40%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Young PH · 5 games
40%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
Ksh · 2 games
50%
Anti-Mage
Anti-Mageoften banned
Ksh · 1 game
0%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Ksh · 1 game
100%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Young PH · 1 game
100%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
Ksh · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
492 picks · 449 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
488 picks · 683 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
464 picks · 283 bans
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
432 picks · 513 bans
52%
Sand King
Sand King
416 picks · 570 bans
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
399 picks · 653 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
375 picks · 602 bans
53%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
354 picks · 309 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 33%
Hero pool strength51% Yangon Galacticos
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total67% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:7
Execration 63%Yangon Galacticos 37%
The model gave 63% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 22:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
KunkkaPalos
42% · 77 games46% · 72 games
JuggernautKsh
Juggernaut
Lina
LinaBob
57% · 49 games44% · 298 games
Ember SpiritYoung PH
Ember Spirit
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightTino-
59% · 80 games
Mirana
MiranaShanks
59% · 94 games
Pugna
PugnaRR
56% · 70 games
Game 2prediction correct32:18
Execration 58%Yangon Galacticos 42%
The model gave 58% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 32:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinPalos
55% · 93 games40% · 124 games
MorphlingKsh
Morphling
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightBob
59% · 85 games52% · 321 game
Ember SpiritYoung PH
Ember Spirit
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritTino-
61% · 36 games
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeShanks
48% · 109 games
Snapfire
SnapfireRR
45% · 122 games
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 67%
Series resultYangon Galacticos 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2