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BLAST Slam IX. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:1
series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Yangon Galacticosloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Bane
Banesignature
cml · 8 games
63%
Rubick
Rubick
Shanks · 7 games
43%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Tino- · 7 games
71%
Doom
Doomsignature
Tino- · 6 games
67%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Bob · 6 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 6 games
33%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Shanks · 6 games
17%
Pangolier
Pangolier
Bob · 6 games
50%

Yangon Galacticos

Lion
Lion
Dric~ · 5 games
60%
Bane
Baneoften banned
Teehee · 4 games
50%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Ksh · 4 games
75%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Rupido · 3 games
67%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Dric~ · 3 games
33%
Luna
Luna
Ksh · 3 games
33%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Young PH · 3 games
67%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Young PH · 3 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
459 picks · 290 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
314 picks · 469 bans
56%
Mirana
Mirana
297 picks · 111 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
293 picks · 313 bans
51%
Bane
Bane
285 picks · 405 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
285 picks · 122 bans
49%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
281 picks · 589 bans
49%
Undying
Undying
270 picks · 366 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 38%
Hero pool strength50% Yangon Galacticos
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total87% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:8
Execration 72%Yangon Galacticos 28%
The model gave 72% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 30:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaPalos
37% · 32 games56% · 71 game
LunaKsh
Luna
Pangolier
PangolierBob
47% · 134 games57% · 298 games
Ember SpiritYoung PH
Ember Spirit
Enigma
EnigmaTino-
46% · 27 games
Dark Willow
Dark WillowShanks
44% · 120 games
Undying
Undyingcml
40% · 56 games
Game 2prediction missed20:48
Execration 71%Yangon Galacticos 29%
The model gave 71% on Execration — the game was taken by Yangon Galacticos in 35:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendPalos
50% · 120 games56% · 134 games
LifestealerKsh
Lifestealer
Slark
SlarkBob
62% · 46 games50% · 487 games
Ember SpiritYoung PH
Ember Spirit
Snapfire
SnapfireTino-
45% · 120 games
Hoodwink
HoodwinkShanks
42% · 229 games
Clockwerk
Clockwerkcml
44% · 106 games
Game 3prediction correct41:36
Execration 73%Yangon Galacticos 27%
The model gave 73% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 42:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeTino-
53% · 71 game47% · 357 games
Shadow FiendKsh
Shadow Fiend
Necrophos
NecrophosPalos
58% · 40 games54% · 190 games
InvokerYoung PH
Invoker
Snapfire
SnapfireBob
42% · 129 games
Hoodwink
HoodwinkShanks
50% · 231 game
Undying
Undyingcml
45% · 76 games
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 87%
Series resultExecration 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3