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Snow Sweet Snow #1 · BO3
result vs prediction
EXTREMUMwin 2:1
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Hellbear Smashersloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

EXTREMUM

Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 4 games
50%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
Chuvash · 3 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 3 games
67%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Shachlo · 3 games
67%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Chuvash · 3 games
100%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Nefrit · 2 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
G · 2 games
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
G · 2 games
50%

Hellbear Smashers

Puck
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 7 games
71%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
Gilgir · 4 games
100%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Ace · 4 games
50%
Oracle
Oracle
tOfu · 3 games
33%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
tOfu · 3 games
100%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
Ace · 3 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Stormstormer · 2 games
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Gilgir · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
91 picks · 206 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
87 picks · 182 bans
48%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
80 picks · 63 bans
57%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
70 picks · 128 bans
57%
Phoenix
Phoenix
59 picks · 71 bans
57%
Rubick
Rubick
59 picks · 31 bans
52%
Undying
Undying
57 picks · 77 bans
57%
Wraith King
Wraith King
57 picks · 57 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Hellbear Smashers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% EXTREMUM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:43
EXTREMUM 56%Hellbear Smashers 44%
The model gave 56% on EXTREMUM — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 46:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Riki
RikiNefrit
51% · 8 games47% · 7 games
WeaverAce
Weaver
Batrider
Batridermellojul
62% · 17 games43% · 3 games
LeshracStormstormer
Leshrac
Night Stalker
Night StalkerShachlo
little data45% · 12 games
Ember SpiritMISERY
Ember Spirit
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritChuvash
53% · 28 games51% · 14 games
Keeper of the LightGilgir
Keeper of the Light
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorG
little data37% · 17 games
OracletOfu
Oracle
Game 2prediction correct26:9
EXTREMUM 54%Hellbear Smashers 46%
The model gave 54% on EXTREMUM — the game was taken by EXTREMUM in 29:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistNefrit
43% · 3 games29% · 3 games
UrsaAce
Ursa
Void Spirit
Void Spiritmellojul
67% · 18 games42% · 30 games
PuckStormstormer
Puck
Pangolier
PangolierShachlo
50% · 6 gameslittle data
Legion CommanderMISERY
Legion Commander
Death Prophet
Death ProphetG
44% · 5 gameslittle data
IoGilgir
Io
Lion
LionChuvash
63% · 4 games43% · 3 games
Crystal MaidentOfu
Crystal Maiden
Game 3prediction correct28:14
EXTREMUM 53%Hellbear Smashers 47%
The model gave 53% on EXTREMUM — the game was taken by EXTREMUM in 34:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaNefrit
29% · 3 gameslittle data
Anti-MageAce
Anti-Mage
Puck
Puckmellojul
50% · 29 games54% · 19 games
BatriderStormstormer
Batrider
Slardar
SlardarShachlo
little data57% · 3 games
EnigmaMISERY
Enigma
Phoenix
PhoenixChuvash
48% · 17 games56% · 10 games
GrimstroketOfu
Grimstroke
Oracle
OracleG
34% · 12 games54% · 29 games
Earth SpiritGilgir
Earth Spirit
Model check result
Model favoriteEXTREMUM · 55%
Series resultEXTREMUM 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3