Snow Sweet Snow #1 · BO3
result vs prediction
EXTREMUMwin 2:0series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Hippomaniacsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
EXTREMUM
Marsoften banned
Shachlo · 12 games
Death Prophetsignature
G · 8 games
Phoenixsignature
Chuvash · 8 games
Void Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 8 games
Alchemistoften banned
Nefrit · 7 games
Batrideroften banned
mellojul · 7 games
Witch Doctor
G · 7 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 5 games
Hippomaniacs
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
203 picks · 443 bans
Mars
181 picks · 335 bans
Void Spirit
174 picks · 246 bans
Earth Spirit
171 picks · 138 bans
Phoenix
146 picks · 167 bans
Keeper of the Light
139 picks · 231 bans
Nyx Assassin
130 picks · 443 bans
Rubick
125 picks · 75 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 28%
Hero pool strength54% EXTREMUM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% EXTREMUM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:10
EXTREMUM 72%Hippomaniacs 28%
The model gave 72% on EXTREMUM — the game was taken by EXTREMUM in 32:23.
Game 2prediction correct33:24
EXTREMUM 72%Hippomaniacs 28%
The model gave 72% on EXTREMUM — the game was taken by EXTREMUM in 33:56.
Model check result
Model favoriteEXTREMUM · 72%
Series resultEXTREMUM 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2