Snow Sweet Snow #1 · BO3
result vs prediction
EXTREMUMloss 0:2series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 0:2
PuckChampwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
EXTREMUM
Void Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 5 games
Alchemist
Nefrit · 4 games
Batrideroften banned
mellojul · 4 games
Death Prophetoften banned
G · 4 games
Marsoften banned
Shachlo · 4 games
Phoenixoften banned
Chuvash · 4 games
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Chuvash · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 3 games
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
120 picks · 231 bans
Puck
120 picks · 275 bans
Earth Spirit
107 picks · 86 bans
Void Spirit
100 picks · 156 bans
Phoenix
96 picks · 99 bans
Rubick
79 picks · 37 bans
Nyx Assassin
76 picks · 273 bans
Keeper of the Light
75 picks · 142 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 67%
Hero pool strength58% EXTREMUM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% EXTREMUM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:25
EXTREMUM 57%PuckChamp 43%
The model gave 57% on EXTREMUM — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 30:38.
Game 2prediction missed18:37
EXTREMUM 57%PuckChamp 43%
The model gave 57% on EXTREMUM — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 31:56.
Model check result
Model favoriteEXTREMUM · 57%
Series resultPuckChamp 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2