?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — СНГ 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
EXTREMUMwin 2:0
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Empireloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

EXTREMUM

Mars
Marsoften banned
Shachlo · 14 games
57%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
mellojul · 13 games
38%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
G · 12 games
83%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 9 games
56%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Chuvash · 8 games
63%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
G · 8 games
25%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Nefrit · 7 games
57%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
G · 7 games
57%

Team Empire

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
sayuw · 10 games
40%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
sayuw · 7 games
57%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Petushara · 6 games
50%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Smiling Knight · 5 games
60%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
sayuw · 5 games
40%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
Smiling Knight · 5 games
60%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
sayuw · 4 games
25%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
EcNart · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
266 picks · 549 bans
54%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
240 picks · 307 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
218 picks · 392 bans
47%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
205 picks · 163 bans
48%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
175 picks · 318 bans
56%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
173 picks · 548 bans
59%
Phoenix
Phoenix
172 picks · 202 bans
58%
Wraith King
Wraith King
169 picks · 222 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 42%
Hero pool strength52% EXTREMUM
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total68% EXTREMUM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct45:26
EXTREMUM 63%Team Empire 37%
The model gave 63% on EXTREMUM — the game was taken by EXTREMUM in 51:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaNefrit
52% · 16 games51% · 35 games
MorphlingSmiling Knight
Morphling
Puck
Puckmellojul
54% · 50 games44% · 38 games
Miranasayuw
Mirana
Pangolier
PangolierShachlo
55% · 27 games31% · 31 game
Outworld DestroyerPetushara
Outworld Destroyer
Disruptor
DisruptorG
66% · 7 games58% · 41 game
ClockwerkEcNart
Clockwerk
Earthshaker
EarthshakerChuvash
50% · 45 games
Game 2prediction correct31:15
EXTREMUM 61%Team Empire 39%
The model gave 61% on EXTREMUM — the game was taken by EXTREMUM in 31:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinNefrit
54% · 21 game51% · 39 games
Troll WarlordSmiling Knight
Troll Warlord
Beastmaster
BeastmasterShachlo
56% · 27 games42% · 54 games
PangolierPetushara
Pangolier
Enchantress
EnchantressG
51% · 19 games53% · 33 games
Shadow Shamansayuw
Shadow Shaman
Earthshaker
EarthshakerChuvash
53% · 28 games64% · 13 games
DisruptorEcNart
Disruptor
Void Spirit
Void Spiritmellojul
45% · 44 games
Model check result
Model favoriteEXTREMUM · 68%
Series resultEXTREMUM 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2