EXTREMUM vs Team Spirit — prediction DPC2S—С1Д 1 · Dota 2

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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — СНГ 1-й дивизион · BO3

result vs prediction

EXTREMUMloss 0:2

series probability

69%31%

probability at match start · final 0:2

Team Spiritwin 2:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

EXTREMUM

Void Spiritoften banned

mellojul · 4 games

50%

Bounty Hunter

Chuvash · 3 games

33%

Shadow Shaman

Chuvash · 3 games

100%

Alchemistoften banned

Nefrit · 2 games

50%

Ember Spiritoften banned

mellojul · 2 games

100%

Marsoften banned

Shachlo · 2 games

100%

Witch Doctor

G · 2 games

100%

Bristlebackoften banned

Nefrit · 1 game

100%

Team Spirit

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Mars

81 picks · 164 bans

48%

Puck

80 picks · 191 bans

52%

Earth Spirit

69 picks · 59 bans

58%

Void Spirit

63 picks · 115 bans

54%

Rubick

54 picks · 29 bans

48%

Undying

52 picks · 74 bans

55%

Phoenix

51 picks · 68 bans

56%

Monkey King

50 picks · 120 bans

48%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)67% vs 50%

Hero pool strength57% EXTREMUM

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total69% EXTREMUM

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed16:18

EXTREMUM 59%Team Spirit 41%

The model gave 59% on EXTREMUM — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 41:57.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo