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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — СНГ 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
EXTREMUMloss 1:2
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Uniquewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

EXTREMUM

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
G · 15 games
73%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Shachlo · 15 games
53%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
mellojul · 14 games
43%
Puck
Puckoften banned
mellojul · 12 games
58%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 12 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Chuvash · 8 games
63%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
G · 8 games
25%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Nefrit · 7 games
57%

Team Unique

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
409 picks · 956 bans
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
373 picks · 530 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
346 picks · 707 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
333 picks · 550 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
323 picks · 326 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
296 picks · 219 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
292 picks · 162 bans
47%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
271 picks · 277 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 52%
Hero pool strength53% EXTREMUM
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total57% Team Unique
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct4:21
EXTREMUM 43%Team Unique 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Unique — the game was taken by Team Unique in 32:49.
Game 2prediction missed16:9
EXTREMUM 43%Team Unique 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Unique — the game was taken by EXTREMUM in 32:33.
Game 3prediction correct16:31
EXTREMUM 43%Team Unique 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Unique — the game was taken by Team Unique in 32:58.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Unique · 57%
Series resultTeam Unique 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3