Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #1 · BO3
result vs prediction
EZ KATKAloss 1:2series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Ancient Tribewin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
EZ KATKA
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Rvze · 3 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Lefitan · 3 games
Invokeroften banned
Rvze · 2 games
Skywrath Mage
Lefitan · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Blizzy · 1 game
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Blizzy · 1 game
Faceless Voidoften banned
Lukas · 1 game
Lycanoften banned
Blizzy · 1 game
Ancient Tribe
Primal Beastsignature
Alexxo · 13 games
Leshracsignature
MTD · 10 games
Miranasignature
LeBronDota · 10 games
Tinysignature
Alexxo · 10 games
Death Prophetoften banned
MTD · 8 games
Pangolieroften banned
meLes · 8 games
Rubick
Heaven · 8 games
Enigmaoften banned
Davai · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
843 picks · 595 bans
Tiny
608 picks · 421 bans
Treant Protector
526 picks · 540 bans
Tusk
517 picks · 425 bans
Nature's Prophet
502 picks · 806 bans
Death Prophet
451 picks · 929 bans
Snapfire
449 picks · 308 bans
Clockwerk
399 picks · 289 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 36%
Hero pool strength51% EZ KATKA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Ancient Tribe
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:49
EZ KATKA 49%Ancient Tribe 51%
The model gave 51% on Ancient Tribe — the game was taken by Ancient Tribe in 47:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiendselfhate
Morphlinglil pleb
Beastmasterklassnokruto
Nature's ProphetMo13ei
41% · 145 games
SnapfireMikSa`
54% · 125 games
UndyingLeBronDota
49% · 227 games
TinyAlexxo
Game 2prediction missed37:25
EZ KATKA 44%Ancient Tribe 56%
The model gave 56% on Ancient Tribe — the game was taken by EZ KATKA in 38:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spiritselfhate
Nature's Prophetlil pleb
Snapfireklassnokruto
VisageMikSa`
41% · 14 games
Outworld DestroyerMo13ei
54% · 108 games
Primal BeastAlexxo
58% · 120 games
SilencerLeBronDota
Game 3prediction correct13:69
EZ KATKA 46%Ancient Tribe 54%
The model gave 54% on Ancient Tribe — the game was taken by Ancient Tribe in 45:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshracselfhate
Bloodseekerlil pleb
Primal Beastklassnokruto
Ember SpiritMo13ei
42% · 134 games
SnapfireMikSa`
45% · 216 games
TinyAlexxo
51% · 104 games
DisruptorLeBronDota
Model check result
Model favoriteAncient Tribe · 58%
Series resultAncient Tribe 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3