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Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 15 · BO3
result vs prediction
EZ KATKAloss 1:2
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Anime Enjoyerswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

EZ KATKA

Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Rvze · 15 games
67%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Lefitan · 10 games
50%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Lukas · 10 games
50%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Lefitan · 9 games
22%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Lukas · 9 games
56%
Tiny
Tiny
Lefitan · 9 games
44%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Blizzy · 7 games
29%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Lefitan · 7 games
43%

Anime Enjoyers

Marci
Marcisignature
sunset · 7 games
86%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
Ulnit · 5 games
80%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
sunset · 4 games
75%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Coblackk · 4 games
75%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
sunset · 3 games
33%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Ulnit · 3 games
67%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Coblackk · 2 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
sunset · 2 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
601 picks · 453 bans
53%
Marci
Marci
460 picks · 666 bans
53%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
371 picks · 518 bans
44%
Puck
Puck
360 picks · 815 bans
53%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
311 picks · 394 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
305 picks · 487 bans
50%
Dazzle
Dazzle
258 picks · 163 bans
53%
Zeus
Zeus
256 picks · 345 bans
43%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 60%
Hero pool strength60% Anime Enjoyers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% EZ KATKA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:35
EZ KATKA 49%Anime Enjoyers 51%
The model gave 51% on Anime Enjoyers — the game was taken by Anime Enjoyers in 43:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeLukas
53% · 109 games45% · 43 games
Shadow FiendUlnit
Shadow Fiend
Invoker
InvokerRvze
40% · 76 games51% · 296 games
TinyAskold
Tiny
Lycan
LycanBlizzy
58% · 47 games53% · 60 games
Earth Spiritsunset
Earth Spirit
Snapfire
SnapfireLefitan
49% · 167 games
Game 2prediction correct47:33
EZ KATKA 50%Anime Enjoyers 50%
The model gave 50% on EZ KATKA — the game was taken by EZ KATKA in 49:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendRvze
43% · 27 games49% · 82 games
TerrorbladeUlnit
Terrorblade
Pudge
PudgeLukas
51% · 51 game49% · 224 games
Tinysunset
Tiny
Pangolier
PangolierBlizzy
53% · 147 games
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageLefitan
56% · 81 game
Game 3prediction correct21:31
EZ KATKA 50%Anime Enjoyers 50%
The model gave 50% on Anime Enjoyers — the game was taken by Anime Enjoyers in 35:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
InvokerRvze
42% · 28 games41% · 31 game
Shadow FiendUlnit
Shadow Fiend
Monkey King
Monkey KingLukas
49% · 39 games58% · 74 games
Nyx Assassinsunset
Nyx Assassin
Primal Beast
Primal BeastBlizzy
59% · 9 games
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeLefitan
52% · 29 games
Model check result
Model favoriteEZ KATKA · 51%
Series resultAnime Enjoyers 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3