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Winline Insight Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
EZ KATKAwin 2:1
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Illicit teamloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

EZ KATKA

Tiny
Tiny
Lefitan · 9 games
44%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Wuiter · 8 games
50%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Rvze · 8 games
63%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Lefitan · 7 games
43%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Lukas · 6 games
33%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
Wuiter · 6 games
33%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Rvze · 6 games
33%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Lukas · 6 games
50%

Illicit team

Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
StoneBank · 3 games
33%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
StoneBank · 3 games
33%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
StoneBank · 2 games
50%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
StoneBank · 1 game
0%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
StoneBank · 1 game
0%
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lanceroften banned
StoneBank · 1 game
0%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
StoneBank · 1 game
0%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
StoneBank · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
722 picks · 573 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
503 picks · 1022 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
493 picks · 652 bans
45%
Marci
Marci
478 picks · 814 bans
52%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
374 picks · 421 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
332 picks · 163 bans
49%
Zeus
Zeus
327 picks · 392 bans
46%
Razor
Razor
304 picks · 584 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 45%
Hero pool strength52% EZ KATKA
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total57% EZ KATKA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:37
EZ KATKA 55%Illicit team 45%
The model gave 55% on EZ KATKA — the game was taken by Illicit team in 49:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingLukas
67% · 11 games45% · 67 games
Faceless VoidStoneBank
Faceless Void
Lina
LinaRvze
44% · 12 games
Death Prophet
Death ProphetBlizzy
59% · 25 games
Marci
MarciLefitan
52% · 19 games
Game 2prediction correct25:8
EZ KATKA 53%Illicit team 47%
The model gave 53% on EZ KATKA — the game was taken by EZ KATKA in 22:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenLukas
50% · 4 games53% · 44 games
Faceless VoidStoneBank
Faceless Void
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendRvze
71% · 3 games
Viper
ViperBlizzy
44% · 5 games
Clockwerk
ClockwerkLefitan
42% · 32 games
Game 3prediction correct36:23
EZ KATKA 52%Illicit team 48%
The model gave 52% on EZ KATKA — the game was taken by EZ KATKA in 40:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidLukas
65% · 13 games53% · 164 games
BloodseekerStoneBank
Bloodseeker
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerBlizzy
47% · 39 games
Pangolier
PangolierRvze
44% · 66 games
Snapfire
SnapfireLefitan
36% · 46 games
Model check result
Model favoriteEZ KATKA · 57%
Series resultEZ KATKA 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3