1x Series · BO3
result vs prediction
EZ KATKAloss 0:2series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Into The Breachwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
EZ KATKA
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Lefitan · 6 games
Night Stalkeroften banned
Wuiter · 4 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Wuiter · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Rvze · 3 games
Puckoften banned
Rvze · 3 games
Razoroften banned
Lukas · 3 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Lukas · 3 games
Tiny
Lukas · 3 games
Into The Breach
Enigmasignature
Kidaro · 11 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Era · 9 games
Terrorbladesignature
Otaker · 9 games
Enchantressoften banned
Kidaro · 8 games
Tinysignature
Ari · 8 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Xibbe · 7 games
Crystal Maiden
Kidaro · 6 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Otaker · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
709 picks · 525 bans
Puck
513 picks · 998 bans
Dawnbreaker
432 picks · 542 bans
Marci
398 picks · 731 bans
Snapfire
376 picks · 197 bans
Winter Wyvern
340 picks · 346 bans
Zeus
303 picks · 341 bans
Razor
296 picks · 608 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 69%
Hero pool strength61% Into The Breach
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Into The Breach
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:24
EZ KATKA 36%Into The Breach 64%
The model gave 64% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 19:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
RazorLukas
BloodseekerOtaker
BeastmasterWuiter
PuckSupream^
Void SpiritRvze
LycanXibbe
Shadow ShamanLefitan
TinyAri
50% · 346 games
BaneKidaro
Game 2prediction correct3:20
EZ KATKA 37%Into The Breach 63%
The model gave 63% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 10:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
ZeusLefitan
Keeper of the LightSupream^
Bounty HunterWuiter
LycanOtaker
Monkey KingLukas
VenomancerXibbe
TinyRvze
DazzleKidaro
53% · 193 games
MarciAri
Model check result
Model favoriteInto The Breach · 72%
Series resultInto The Breach 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2