Positive Fire Games · BO3
result vs prediction
Fantastic Fivewin 2:0series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:0
CECyberLife eSportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fantastic Five
Earth Spirit
Muka · 2 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
SuperNova · 2 games
Puckoften banned
Askold · 2 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Askold · 2 games
Tusk
633 · 2 games
Viperoften banned
SuperNova · 2 games
Centaur Warrunner
SuperNova · 1 game
Crystal Maiden
633 · 1 game
CyberLife eSports
Timbersawoften banned
Actor · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Bombad1l · 1 game
Lifestealeroften banned
Otaker · 1 game
Linaoften banned
Bombad1l · 1 game
Lycanoften banned
Otaker · 1 game
Marsoften banned
Actor · 1 game
Spectre
Otaker · 1 game
Storm Spiritoften banned
Bombad1l · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
441 picks · 982 bans
Void Spirit
419 picks · 584 bans
Death Prophet
364 picks · 702 bans
Mars
346 picks · 605 bans
Earth Spirit
317 picks · 307 bans
Grimstroke
298 picks · 260 bans
Tusk
296 picks · 188 bans
Phoenix
278 picks · 400 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 29%
Hero pool strength58% CyberLife eSports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Fantastic Five
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed42:24
Fantastic Five 49%CyberLife eSports 51%
The model gave 51% on CyberLife eSports — the game was taken by Fantastic Five in 42:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm SpiritAskold
TerrorbladeOtaker
UnderlordSuperNova
MarsActor
Dark WillowMuka
InvokerBombad1l
Ancient Apparition633
Model check result
Model favoriteFantastic Five · 52%
Series resultFantastic Five 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 1