Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Fantastic Fivewin 2:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
EBEsports Bearsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fantastic Five
No games played over 6 months.
Esports Bears
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
462 picks · 1023 bans
Void Spirit
431 picks · 619 bans
Mars
378 picks · 662 bans
Death Prophet
354 picks · 663 bans
Earth Spirit
337 picks · 295 bans
Phoenix
282 picks · 387 bans
Monkey King
269 picks · 853 bans
Rubick
264 picks · 177 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Fantastic Five
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Fantastic Five
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteFantastic Five · 54%
Series resultFantastic Five 2:0
Series predictioncorrect