Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Fantastic Fivewin 2:0series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Gambit Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fantastic Five
Hoodwink
jAMES · 13 games
Marsoften banned
Actor · 12 games
Dark Willowsignature
jAMES · 11 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Askold · 10 games
Pucksignature
Askold · 9 games
Batrideroften banned
Askold · 8 games
Mirana
Muka · 8 games
Clockwerk
633 · 7 games
Gambit Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
336 picks · 484 bans
Snapfire
293 picks · 167 bans
Bane
280 picks · 220 bans
Weaver
275 picks · 604 bans
Tidehunter
256 picks · 392 bans
Monkey King
251 picks · 716 bans
Ember Spirit
220 picks · 304 bans
Disruptor
219 picks · 134 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 67%
Hero pool strength55% Gambit Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Gambit Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed44:52
Fantastic Five 37%Gambit Esports 63%
The model gave 63% on Gambit Esports — the game was taken by Fantastic Five in 57:12.
Game 2prediction missed43:18
Fantastic Five 37%Gambit Esports 63%
The model gave 63% on Gambit Esports — the game was taken by Fantastic Five in 48:23.
Model check result
Model favoriteGambit Esports · 63%
Series resultFantastic Five 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2