Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — СНГ 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Fantastic Fiveloss 0:2series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 0:2
HellRaiserswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fantastic Five
Storm Spiritoften banned
Askold · 3 games
Dark Willow
Muka · 2 games
Earth Spirit
Muka · 2 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
SuperNova · 2 games
Puckoften banned
Askold · 2 games
Tusk
633 · 2 games
Underlordoften banned
SuperNova · 2 games
Viperoften banned
SuperNova · 2 games
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
440 picks · 979 bans
Void Spirit
417 picks · 580 bans
Death Prophet
364 picks · 704 bans
Mars
348 picks · 598 bans
Earth Spirit
312 picks · 306 bans
Grimstroke
299 picks · 263 bans
Tusk
297 picks · 188 bans
Phoenix
274 picks · 403 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 59%
Hero pool strength55% HellRaisers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% HellRaisers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:32
Fantastic Five 26%HellRaisers 74%
The model gave 74% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 31:44.
Game 2prediction correct7:45
Fantastic Five 26%HellRaisers 74%
The model gave 74% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 28:49.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellRaisers · 74%
Series resultHellRaisers 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2