Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Fantastic Fivewin 2:0series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HellRaisersloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fantastic Five
Dark Willowsignature
Muka · 17 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Askold · 15 games
Puckoften banned
Askold · 12 games
Ancient Apparitionsignature
633 · 9 games
Grimstroke
633 · 9 games
Hoodwink
633 · 9 games
Linaoften banned
Askold · 9 games
Marsoften banned
Actor · 9 games
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
431 picks · 192 bans
Hoodwink
347 picks · 135 bans
Nyx Assassin
307 picks · 631 bans
Puck
301 picks · 676 bans
Ancient Apparition
291 picks · 461 bans
Mars
289 picks · 508 bans
Dragon Knight
281 picks · 354 bans
Winter Wyvern
262 picks · 226 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 55%
Hero pool strength51% Fantastic Five
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total65% HellRaisers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed40:31
Fantastic Five 35%HellRaisers 65%
The model gave 65% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by Fantastic Five in 52:38.
Game 2prediction missed40:12
Fantastic Five 35%HellRaisers 65%
The model gave 65% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by Fantastic Five in 36:42.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellRaisers · 65%
Series resultFantastic Five 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2