Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Fantastic Fivewin 2:0series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
IVYloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fantastic Five
Hoodwink
jAMES · 13 games
Marsoften banned
Actor · 12 games
Dark Willowsignature
jAMES · 11 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Askold · 10 games
Pucksignature
Askold · 9 games
Batrideroften banned
Askold · 8 games
Mirana
Muka · 8 games
Clockwerk
633 · 7 games
IVY
Marsoften banned
TheBloodySky · 4 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
Lowskill · 3 games
Invokeroften banned
Copy · 3 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Copy · 3 games
Tidehunteroften banned
TheBloodySky · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Copy · 2 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Lowskill · 2 games
Legion Commanderoften banned
TheBloodySky · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
321 picks · 454 bans
Bane
273 picks · 209 bans
Monkey King
273 picks · 688 bans
Tidehunter
262 picks · 398 bans
Snapfire
256 picks · 142 bans
Weaver
251 picks · 546 bans
Lion
211 picks · 96 bans
Void Spirit
207 picks · 239 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 55%
Hero pool strength54% IVY
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Fantastic Five
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:15
Fantastic Five 52%IVY 48%
The model gave 52% on Fantastic Five — the game was taken by Fantastic Five in 31:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaArk
KunkkaCopy
Storm SpiritMalr1ne
MedusaLowskill
43% · 34 games
Legion CommanderTheBloodySky
Game 2prediction correct50:30
Fantastic Five 54%IVY 46%
The model gave 54% on Fantastic Five — the game was taken by Fantastic Five in 58:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaArk
TinkerCopy
ZeusMalr1ne
KunkkaLowskill
61% · 27 games
Faceless VoidTheBloodySky
Model check result
Model favoriteFantastic Five · 58%
Series resultFantastic Five 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2