Fantastic Five vs Khan — prediction DCLS 2 2021 2 · Dota 2

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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 2 · BO3

result vs prediction

Fantastic Fiveloss 0:2

series probability

53%47%

probability at match start · final 0:2

Khanwin 2:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Fantastic Five

Dark Willowsignature

Muka · 16 games

75%

Void Spiritoften banned

Askold · 15 games

47%

Pucksignature

Askold · 10 games

60%

Ancient Apparitionsignature

633 · 9 games

78%

Grimstroke

633 · 7 games

57%

Linaoften banned

Askold · 7 games

29%

Underlordoften banned

SuperNova · 7 games

43%

Hoodwink

jAMES · 6 games

33%

Khan

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Lion

426 picks · 167 bans

52%

Ancient Apparition

314 picks · 473 bans

55%

Mars

302 picks · 526 bans

49%

Nyx Assassin

302 picks · 618 bans

57%

Puck

298 picks · 705 bans

49%

Enchantress

268 picks · 341 bans

47%

Hoodwink

264 picks · 110 bans

51%

Lina

257 picks · 332 bans

49%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)58% vs 57%

Hero pool strength52% Fantastic Five

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total53% Fantastic Five

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct5:23

Fantastic Five 50%Khan 50%

The model gave 50% on Khan — the game was taken by Khan in 27:26.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo