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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Fantastic Fivewin 2:0
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Spider Pigzsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Fantastic Five

Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Muka · 11 games
73%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Askold · 10 games
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
633 · 8 games
75%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Askold · 8 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
633 · 7 games
57%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
SuperNova · 6 games
33%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Muka · 5 games
0%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Muka · 5 games
20%

Spider Pigzs

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Mitch · 15 games
60%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
LeBronDota · 15 games
33%
Rubick
Rubick
dnz · 13 games
54%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
dnz · 13 games
38%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
LeBronDota · 11 games
45%
Lina
Linasignature
No!ob · 10 games
80%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
No!ob · 10 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
dnz · 9 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
459 picks · 180 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
356 picks · 198 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
346 picks · 554 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
328 picks · 822 bans
49%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
321 picks · 479 bans
56%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
312 picks · 614 bans
58%
Tiny
Tiny
302 picks · 242 bans
51%
Enchantress
Enchantress
287 picks · 363 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 56%
Hero pool strength52% Fantastic Five
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Spider Pigzs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:26
Fantastic Five 46%Spider Pigzs 54%
The model gave 54% on Spider Pigzs — the game was taken by Fantastic Five in 37:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Death Prophet
Death ProphetAskold
47% · 132 games58% · 101 game
Templar Assassinlightless
Templar Assassin
Mars
MarsActor
44% · 169 games56% · 182 games
PangolierNo!ob
Pangolier
Abaddon
Abaddon633
38% · 83 games49% · 53 games
SlardarFunn1k
Slardar
Lion
LionMuka
45% · 187 games59% · 235 games
Nyx AssassinMitch
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction missed25:20
Fantastic Five 46%Spider Pigzs 54%
The model gave 54% on Spider Pigzs — the game was taken by Fantastic Five in 36:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void Spirit
Void SpiritAskold
38% · 94 games53% · 37 games
Faceless Voidlightless
Faceless Void
Brewmaster
BrewmasterActor
55% · 17 games57% · 78 games
InvokerNo!ob
Invoker
Abaddon
Abaddon633
50% · 56 games53% · 66 games
Dragon KnightFunn1k
Dragon Knight
Dark Willow
Dark WillowMuka
55% · 53 games45% · 39 games
Witch DoctorMitch
Witch Doctor
Model check result
Model favoriteSpider Pigzs · 57%
Series resultFantastic Five 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2