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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Fantastic Fiveloss 1:2
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:2
V-Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Fantastic Five

Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Askold · 13 games
46%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Muka · 12 games
75%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
633 · 8 games
75%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Askold · 8 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
633 · 7 games
57%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Askold · 6 games
17%
Mirana
Mirana
Muka · 6 games
33%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
SuperNova · 6 games
33%

V-Gaming

Lion
Lionsignature
ArrOw · 13 games
62%
Mars
Marssignature
laise · 8 games
63%
Viper
Viperoften banned
hAze · 7 games
57%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
ArrOw · 6 games
50%
Medusa
Medusasignature
TA2000 · 6 games
67%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Malady · 5 games
40%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
Malady · 5 games
60%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
TA2000 · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
419 picks · 169 bans
51%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
310 picks · 464 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
309 picks · 520 bans
51%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
297 picks · 621 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
292 picks · 739 bans
47%
Snapfire
Snapfire
281 picks · 161 bans
52%
Enchantress
Enchantress
276 picks · 359 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
264 picks · 218 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 65%
Hero pool strength54% V-Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% V-Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:19
Fantastic Five 46%V-Gaming 54%
The model gave 54% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by Fantastic Five in 36:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
BroodmotherActor
58% · 33 games43% · 54 games
GyrocopterTA2000
Gyrocopter
Puck
PuckAskold
50% · 182 games52% · 141 game
Dragon KnighthAze
Dragon Knight
Hoodwink
HoodwinkjAMES
53% · 63 games47% · 101 game
Axelaise
Axe
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition633
48% · 90 games40% · 21 game
Skywrath MageArrOw
Skywrath Mage
59% · 51 game
IoMalady
Io
Game 2prediction correct16:25
Fantastic Five 43%V-Gaming 57%
The model gave 57% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 31:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void Spirit
Void SpiritAskold
47% · 283 games61% · 105 games
TerrorbladeTA2000
Terrorblade
Mars
MarsActor
46% · 284 games49% · 298 games
PuckhAze
Puck
Hoodwink
HoodwinkjAMES
44% · 117 games57% · 105 games
Dragon Knightlaise
Dragon Knight
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon633
56% · 73 games50% · 108 games
RubickArrOw
Rubick
45% · 141 game
AbaddonMalady
Abaddon
Game 3prediction correct17:26
Fantastic Five 44%V-Gaming 56%
The model gave 56% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 31:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritAskold
41% · 60 games65% · 83 games
TerrorbladeTA2000
Terrorblade
Timbersaw
TimbersawActor
49% · 92 games40% · 18 games
PugnahAze
Pugna
Dark Willow
Dark WillowjAMES
51% · 72 games46% · 85 games
Batriderlaise
Batrider
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight633
41% · 110 games60% · 108 games
Nyx AssassinArrOw
Nyx Assassin
46% · 40 games
Treant ProtectorMalady
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteV-Gaming · 60%
Series resultV-Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3