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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Fantastic Fiveloss 1:2
series probability
18%82%
probability at match start · final 1:2
V-Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Fantastic Five

Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Muka · 20 games
70%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Askold · 16 games
56%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Askold · 15 games
47%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
jAMES · 12 games
33%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Actor · 12 games
42%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
633 · 11 games
45%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
633 · 10 games
70%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Askold · 9 games
22%

V-Gaming

Lion
Lionsignature
ArrOw · 25 games
72%
Puck
Puckoften banned
hAze · 17 games
53%
Lina
Linasignature
hAze · 16 games
75%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Malady · 15 games
53%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Malady · 14 games
79%
Axe
Axeoften banned
TA2000 · 13 games
46%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
laise · 13 games
54%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
ArrOw · 13 games
69%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
389 picks · 168 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
352 picks · 127 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
266 picks · 348 bans
48%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
260 picks · 525 bans
57%
Lina
Lina
254 picks · 409 bans
51%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
250 picks · 242 bans
54%
Luna
Luna
247 picks · 331 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
236 picks · 543 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 71%
Hero pool strength60% V-Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total82% V-Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:50
Fantastic Five 31%V-Gaming 69%
The model gave 69% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 44:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
ClinkzKami
59% · 9 games52% · 15 games
Naga SirenTA2000
Naga Siren
Mars
MarsBlizzy
46% · 173 games41% · 89 games
TinyhAze
Tiny
Dark Willow
Dark WillowjAMES
51% · 52 games54% · 50 games
UndyingMalik
Undying
Omniknight
OmniknightSeleri
50% · 33 games60% · 34 games
DisruptorMalady
Disruptor
51% · 79 games
RubickArrOw
Rubick
Game 2prediction missed19:19
Fantastic Five 30%V-Gaming 70%
The model gave 70% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by Fantastic Five in 41:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
ClinkzKami
45% · 26 games55% · 76 games
InvokerhAze
Invoker
Pangolier
PangolierAskold
55% · 113 games49% · 33 games
SlarkTA2000
Slark
Beastmaster
BeastmasterBlizzy
49% · 72 games58% · 124 games
TidehunterMalik
Tidehunter
Rubick
RubickjAMES
47% · 103 games41% · 144 games
LinaArrOw
Lina
Clockwerk
ClockwerkSeleri
50% · 94 games45% · 31 game
OmniknightMalady
Omniknight
Game 3prediction correct26:33
Fantastic Five 30%V-Gaming 70%
The model gave 70% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 38:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenKami
50% · 29 games47% · 18 games
Shadow FiendhAze
Shadow Fiend
Void Spirit
Void SpiritAskold
51% · 47 games47% · 65 games
LifestealerTA2000
Lifestealer
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightBlizzy
40% · 31 game46% · 15 games
Vengeful SpiritMalik
Vengeful Spirit
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightjAMES
61% · 32 games50% · 14 games
PudgeArrOw
Pudge
Hoodwink
HoodwinkSeleri
47% · 28 games56% · 55 games
DisruptorMalady
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteV-Gaming · 82%
Series resultV-Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3