Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Fantasy Gamingloss 0:2series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Lavawin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fantasy Gaming
Sniperoften banned
Arms · 1 game
Weaveroften banned
Arms · 1 game
Lava
Enchantressoften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 1 game
Ogre Magi
JimmyCoff666 · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
357 picks · 341 bans
Tusk
317 picks · 293 bans
Marci
273 picks · 515 bans
Undying
252 picks · 462 bans
Pangolier
247 picks · 555 bans
Primal Beast
232 picks · 593 bans
Shadow Fiend
221 picks · 340 bans
Snapfire
216 picks · 115 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 63%
Hero pool strength52% Lava
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Lava
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:30
Fantasy Gaming 46%Lava 54%
The model gave 54% on Lava — the game was taken by Lava in 33:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow RangerArms
EnchantressJimmyCoff666
Game 2prediction missed15:38
Fantasy Gaming 51%Lava 49%
The model gave 51% on Fantasy Gaming — the game was taken by Lava in 29:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerArms
Ogre MagiJimmyCoff666
Model check result
Model favoriteLava · 57%
Series resultLava 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2