Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Fantasy Gamingwin 2:0series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Shark Boysloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fantasy Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Shark Boys
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
343 picks · 297 bans
Marci
283 picks · 527 bans
Tusk
281 picks · 249 bans
Undying
259 picks · 455 bans
Pangolier
240 picks · 504 bans
Primal Beast
223 picks · 545 bans
Shadow Fiend
215 picks · 319 bans
Crystal Maiden
202 picks · 118 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% Fantasy Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Shark Boys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:47
Fantasy Gaming 46%Shark Boys 54%
The model gave 54% on Shark Boys — the game was taken by Fantasy Gaming in 47:55.
Game 2prediction missed27:44
Fantasy Gaming 46%Shark Boys 54%
The model gave 54% on Shark Boys — the game was taken by Fantasy Gaming in 31:32.
Model check result
Model favoriteShark Boys · 54%
Series resultFantasy Gaming 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2