Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Fantasy Gamingloss 0:2series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 0:2
TRocketwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fantasy Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
TRocket
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
352 picks · 318 bans
Tusk
293 picks · 277 bans
Marci
273 picks · 516 bans
Undying
250 picks · 455 bans
Pangolier
243 picks · 536 bans
Primal Beast
226 picks · 574 bans
Shadow Fiend
217 picks · 333 bans
Snapfire
210 picks · 107 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 57%
Hero pool strength50% Fantasy Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Fantasy Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:56
Fantasy Gaming 55%TRocket 45%
The model gave 55% on Fantasy Gaming — the game was taken by TRocket in 45:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SniperArms
BeastmasterGreedy
50% · 8 games
EnchantressPamplona
Game 2prediction missed9:38
Fantasy Gaming 57%TRocket 43%
The model gave 57% on Fantasy Gaming — the game was taken by TRocket in 21:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WeaverArms
BroodmotherGreedy
24% · 13 games
Crystal MaidenPamplona
Model check result
Model favoriteFantasy Gaming · 63%
Series resultTRocket 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2