Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Южная Америка. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Fantasy Gamingloss 1:2series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:2
TRocketwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fantasy Gaming
Drow Rangeroften banned
Arms · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Nada · 1 game
Lifestealeroften banned
Arms · 1 game
Naga Sirenoften banned
Nada · 1 game
Sniperoften banned
Arms · 1 game
Weaveroften banned
Arms · 1 game
TRocket
Broodmotheroften banned
Greedy · 3 games
Crystal Maiden
Pamplona · 3 games
Snapfire
Pamplona · 3 games
Undyingoften banned
Pamplona · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
H1j4ck · 2 games
Enchantress
Pamplona · 2 games
Luna
CarJua · 2 games
Phantom Lanceroften banned
CarJua · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
784 picks · 542 bans
Tiny
565 picks · 399 bans
Treant Protector
528 picks · 569 bans
Tusk
524 picks · 440 bans
Nature's Prophet
439 picks · 718 bans
Death Prophet
409 picks · 791 bans
Snapfire
401 picks · 292 bans
Ember Spirit
362 picks · 846 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 47%
Hero pool strength55% TRocket
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total63% TRocket
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:42
Fantasy Gaming 45%TRocket 55%
The model gave 55% on TRocket — the game was taken by Fantasy Gaming in 44:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SpectreNada
LunaCarJua
45% · 7 games
Death ProphetH1j4ck
50% · 18 games
SnapfirePamplona
50% · 20 games
ClockwerkAretes
Game 2prediction correct
Fantasy Gaming 37%TRocket 63%
The model gave 63% on TRocket — the game was taken by TRocket.
Game 3prediction correct23:42
Fantasy Gaming 42%TRocket 58%
The model gave 58% on TRocket — the game was taken by TRocket in 29:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinNada
Drow RangerCarJua
69% · 25 games
Death ProphetH1j4ck
little data
Spirit BreakerPamplona
57% · 10 games
SnapfireAretes
Model check result
Model favoriteTRocket · 63%
Series resultTRocket 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3