Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Северная Америка. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Fart Studiosloss 0:2series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:2
GRIN esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fart Studios
Rubick
Newsham · 11 games
Tiny
iAnnihilate · 10 games
Linasignature
iAnnihilate · 7 games
Treant Protectorsignature
Jenkins · 7 games
Disruptorsignature
Sonic · 6 games
Naga Sirensignature
BSJ · 6 games
Mirana
Newsham · 5 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
BSJ · 5 games
GRIN esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
727 picks · 611 bans
Disruptor
560 picks · 487 bans
Beastmaster
435 picks · 1045 bans
Doom
419 picks · 684 bans
Ember Spirit
401 picks · 994 bans
Tiny
390 picks · 370 bans
Undying
384 picks · 608 bans
Mirana
381 picks · 205 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 45%
Hero pool strength53% Fart Studios
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% GRIN esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:35
Fart Studios 38%GRIN esports 62%
The model gave 62% on GRIN esports — the game was taken by GRIN esports in 30:26.
Game 2prediction correct13:31
Fart Studios 38%GRIN esports 62%
The model gave 62% on GRIN esports — the game was taken by GRIN esports in 32:22.
Model check result
Model favoriteGRIN esports · 62%
Series resultGRIN esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2