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DreamLeague Season 23 - Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Fart Studioswin 2:1
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Next Generationloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Fart Studios

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
iAnnihilate · 5 games
40%
Pudge
Pudgeoften banned
Jenkins · 4 games
50%
Spectre
Spectreoften banned
Skyward · 4 games
50%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Jenkins · 4 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Sonic · 4 games
25%
Zeus
Zeusoften banned
iAnnihilate · 4 games
25%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Newsham · 3 games
0%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
iAnnihilate · 3 games
33%

Next Generation

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
379 picks · 351 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
361 picks · 579 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
349 picks · 535 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
347 picks · 273 bans
53%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
343 picks · 335 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
327 picks · 672 bans
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
319 picks · 191 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
309 picks · 318 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Next Generation
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Fart Studios
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:28
Fart Studios 57%Next Generation 43%
The model gave 57% on Fart Studios — the game was taken by Fart Studios in 30:02.
Game 2prediction missed35:18
Fart Studios 57%Next Generation 43%
The model gave 57% on Fart Studios — the game was taken by Next Generation in 28:55.
Game 3prediction correct13:53
Fart Studios 57%Next Generation 43%
The model gave 57% on Fart Studios — the game was taken by Fart Studios in 25:12.
Model check result
Model favoriteFart Studios · 57%
Series resultFart Studios 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3