DreamLeague Season 22. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Fart Studioswin 1:0series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 1:0
TiltedBoysloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fart Studios
Dark Willow
Newsham · 3 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
iAnnihilate · 3 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
Jenkins · 2 games
Kunkkaoften banned
iAnnihilate · 2 games
Lone Druidoften banned
Fear · 2 games
Muertaoften banned
Newsham · 2 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Jenkins · 2 games
Pangolieroften banned
iAnnihilate · 2 games
TiltedBoys
Dark Willow
monkeys-forever · 1 game
Death Prophetoften banned
monkeys-forever · 1 game
Lycanoften banned
monkeys-forever · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
260 picks · 438 bans
Phoenix
238 picks · 370 bans
Muerta
225 picks · 317 bans
Centaur Warrunner
223 picks · 294 bans
Dark Willow
212 picks · 99 bans
Tusk
211 picks · 196 bans
Treant Protector
190 picks · 359 bans
Kunkka
186 picks · 517 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% TiltedBoys
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total65% TiltedBoys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:23
Fart Studios 35%TiltedBoys 65%
The model gave 65% on TiltedBoys — the game was taken by Fart Studios in 43:33.
Model check result
Model favoriteTiltedBoys · 65%
Series resultFart Studios 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1