ACL X ESL Challenger China · BO1
result vs predictionFEFate's Edgeloss 0:1
series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 0:1
FGFuture Gamingwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fate's Edge
No games played over 6 months.
Future Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
444 picks · 669 bans
Jakiro
403 picks · 402 bans
Phantom Assassin
351 picks · 719 bans
Bristleback
325 picks · 607 bans
Dragon Knight
316 picks · 525 bans
Muerta
312 picks · 187 bans
Beastmaster
298 picks · 580 bans
Warlock
294 picks · 272 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Fate's Edge
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% Fate's Edge
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:30
Fate's Edge 70%Future Gaming 30%
The model gave 70% on Fate's Edge — the game was taken by Future Gaming in 1:00:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tinylou
PuckShanks
ViperBEYOND
MarsIrving
JakiroBoBoKa
Shadow Shamanrayy
RingmasterUndyne_
Model check result
Model favoriteFate's Edge · 83%
Series resultFuture Gaming 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1