BTS Pro Series Season 12: Америка · BO2
result vs prediction
Feltloss 0:2series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:2
5RATFORCESTAFFwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Felt
Weaveroften banned
Zore · 10 games
Tiny
solji · 9 games
Death Prophetsignature
solji · 8 games
Batrideroften banned
Fayde · 6 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Zore · 6 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
solji · 5 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
paradise' · 5 games
Abaddonoften banned
Shoe · 4 games
5RATFORCESTAFF
Jakiro
albinozebra · 15 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Speeed · 13 games
Faceless Voidsignature
dnm · 8 games
Tiny
Giant · 8 games
Abaddonsignature
albinozebra · 7 games
Clockwerk
albinozebra · 7 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
dnm · 6 games
Pangoliersignature
red2 · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
628 picks · 494 bans
Marci
471 picks · 685 bans
Dawnbreaker
406 picks · 571 bans
Puck
399 picks · 850 bans
Winter Wyvern
328 picks · 408 bans
Death Prophet
301 picks · 482 bans
Zeus
276 picks · 365 bans
Enchantress
267 picks · 320 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)27% vs 38%
Hero pool strength57% 5RATFORCESTAFF
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total55% 5RATFORCESTAFF
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:36
Felt 47%5RATFORCESTAFF 53%
The model gave 53% on 5RATFORCESTAFF — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF in 38:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusaparadise'
Faceless Voiddnm
Night StalkerFayde
BeastmasterSpeeed
Tinysolji
Jakiroalbinozebra
RubickThe Warden
ClockwerkChen
Game 2prediction correct14:36
Felt 46%5RATFORCESTAFF 54%
The model gave 54% on 5RATFORCESTAFF — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF in 33:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Voidparadise'
Naga Sirendnm
Zeussolji
UndyingSpeeed
BeastmasterFayde
Vengeful Spiritalbinozebra
SnapfireThe Warden
Crystal MaidenChen
Model check result
Model favorite5RATFORCESTAFF · 55%
Series result5RATFORCESTAFF 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2