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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Feltloss 1:2
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:2
B8 Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Felt

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Chen · 9 games
44%
Tiny
Tiny
solji · 9 games
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Fayde · 8 games
75%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Berna · 8 games
100%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Fayde · 7 games
57%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Shoe · 6 games
83%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
solji · 6 games
67%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
The Warden · 6 games
33%

B8 Esports

Snapfire
Snapfire
Alexxo · 14 games
43%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Dendi · 13 games
23%
Rubick
Rubick
MoOz · 8 games
25%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
Davai · 6 games
50%
Mirana
Mirana
Lodine · 6 games
33%
Silencer
Silencer
Sammyboy · 6 games
17%
Lina
Linaoften banned
StoneBank · 5 games
80%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
YamSun · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
801 picks · 568 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
581 picks · 399 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
522 picks · 550 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
507 picks · 416 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
471 picks · 760 bans
56%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
423 picks · 868 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
419 picks · 301 bans
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
365 picks · 875 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 36%
Hero pool strength59% Felt
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Felt
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:42
Felt 52%B8 Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on Felt — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 42:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonBerna
58% · 46 games45% · 263 games
LinaDendi
Lina
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFayde
50% · 160 games46% · 147 games
Monkey KingStoneBank
Monkey King
Rubick
Rubicksolji
46% · 356 games47% · 59 games
AlchemistFunn1k
Alchemist
Undying
Undyingalbinozebra
54% · 185 games43% · 91 game
WeaverCTOMAHEH1
Weaver
63% · 187 games
DisruptorLodine
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct32:25
Felt 54%B8 Esports 46%
The model gave 54% on Felt — the game was taken by Felt in 36:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordBerna
53% · 40 games48% · 77 games
Chaos KnightStoneBank
Chaos Knight
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerFayde
55% · 21 game47% · 23 games
Outworld DestroyerFunn1k
Outworld Destroyer
Mirana
Miranasolji
49% · 134 games57% · 15 games
Witch DoctorDendi
Witch Doctor
Disruptor
Disruptoralbinozebra
50% · 109 games47% · 133 games
Primal BeastCTOMAHEH1
Primal Beast
52% · 56 games
IoLodine
Io
Game 3prediction missed15:29
Felt 56%B8 Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on Felt — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 32:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetBerna
50% · 145 games50% · 189 games
Templar AssassinDendi
Templar Assassin
Enigma
EnigmaFayde
52% · 136 games42% · 115 games
Drow RangerStoneBank
Drow Ranger
Tiny
Tinysolji
51% · 458 games52% · 30 games
Witch DoctorFunn1k
Witch Doctor
Disruptor
Disruptoralbinozebra
55% · 125 games48% · 414 games
ClockwerkCTOMAHEH1
Clockwerk
52% · 116 games
IoLodine
Io
Model check result
Model favoriteFelt · 55%
Series resultB8 Esports 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3