Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO1
result vs prediction
Feltwin 1:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:0
B8 Esportsloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Felt
Beastmastersignature
Fayde · 11 games
Mirana
solji · 11 games
Disruptorsignature
albinozebra · 10 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Berna · 9 games
Rubick
solji · 8 games
Tiny
solji · 8 games
Treant Protectorsignature
Chen · 8 games
Enigmaoften banned
Fayde · 7 games
B8 Esports
Primal Beastoften banned
Dendi · 15 games
Snapfire
Alexxo · 14 games
Rubick
MoOz · 10 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
StoneBank · 7 games
Broodmotheroften banned
Davai · 6 games
Disruptor
Lodine · 6 games
Linasignature
StoneBank · 6 games
Mirana
Lodine · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
897 picks · 618 bans
Tiny
638 picks · 443 bans
Nature's Prophet
538 picks · 857 bans
Treant Protector
537 picks · 544 bans
Tusk
537 picks · 433 bans
Snapfire
479 picks · 329 bans
Death Prophet
468 picks · 1005 bans
Clockwerk
440 picks · 316 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 37%
Hero pool strength61% Felt
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total62% Felt
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:25
Felt 53%B8 Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on Felt — the game was taken by Felt in 39:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos KnightBerna
Nature's ProphetFunn1k
BeastmasterFayde
UrsaStoneBank
Dark Willowsolji
TinyDendi
Undyingalbinozebra
EnchantressLodine
60% · 156 games
DisruptorCTOMAHEH1
Model check result
Model favoriteFelt · 62%
Series resultFelt 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1