Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Северная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Feltloss 0:2series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 0:2
D2 Hustlerswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Felt
Axeoften banned
Zore · 4 games
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
solji · 3 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Zore · 3 games
Queen of Painoften banned
solji · 2 games
Slarkoften banned
Kom4rt · 2 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
solji · 2 games
Timbersawoften banned
Zore · 2 games
Ursaoften banned
Kom4rt · 2 games
D2 Hustlers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
450 picks · 986 bans
Void Spirit
430 picks · 590 bans
Death Prophet
371 picks · 694 bans
Mars
350 picks · 608 bans
Earth Spirit
324 picks · 300 bans
Tusk
289 picks · 184 bans
Grimstroke
286 picks · 249 bans
Phoenix
278 picks · 390 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 71%
Hero pool strength51% D2 Hustlers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% D2 Hustlers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteD2 Hustlers · 77%
Series resultD2 Hustlers 0:2
Series predictioncorrect