Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Feltloss 0:2series probability
15%85%
probability at match start · final 0:2
nounswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Felt
Axesignature
Zore · 10 games
Tinysignature
AfrOmoush · 8 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
solji · 7 games
Weaveroften banned
Zore · 7 games
Huskaroften banned
Yellow Flash · 5 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Zore · 5 games
Death Prophetoften banned
solji · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
solji · 4 games
nouns
Dragon Knightsignature
Moo · 7 games
Enchantresssignature
Husky · 6 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
Husky · 4 games
Crystal Maiden
Husky · 4 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Gunnar · 4 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Moo · 3 games
Enigmaoften banned
ZfreeK · 3 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Gunnar · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
474 picks · 659 bans
Tiny
470 picks · 444 bans
Bane
453 picks · 275 bans
Sand King
414 picks · 565 bans
Dragon Knight
411 picks · 491 bans
Storm Spirit
401 picks · 653 bans
Pangolier
368 picks · 572 bans
Grimstroke
346 picks · 295 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 69%
Hero pool strength56% nouns
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:18
Felt 29%nouns 71%
The model gave 71% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 22:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Linasolji
Monkey KingCostabile
Weaverparadise'
Lone DruidGunnar
TimbersawZore
BeastmasterMoo
Treant ProtectorShoe
RubickZfreeK
little data
MarciHusky
Game 2prediction correct7:37
Felt 27%nouns 73%
The model gave 73% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 20:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkkasolji
ClinkzCostabile
ViperZore
PudgeGunnar
Phantom Lancerparadise'
Dragon KnightMoo
EnchantressShoe
MiranaZfreeK
little data
MarciHusky
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 85%
Series resultnouns 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2