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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Feltloss 1:2
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Penguins Squadwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Felt

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Chen · 8 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
solji · 8 games
38%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Fayde · 7 games
43%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Fayde · 7 games
43%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Fayde · 6 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
solji · 6 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
The Warden · 6 games
33%
Ursa
Ursasignature
paradise' · 6 games
83%

Penguins Squad

Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakersignature
Crawler · 6 games
67%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Rabish · 3 games
33%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Satoshi- · 3 games
33%
Silencer
Silencer
Ifrit · 3 games
67%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Ifrit · 3 games
33%
Tusk
Tusk
Ifrit · 3 games
0%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Satoshi- · 2 games
100%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Crawler · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
667 picks · 427 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
576 picks · 543 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
557 picks · 440 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
477 picks · 538 bans
57%
Mirana
Mirana
386 picks · 385 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
379 picks · 206 bans
44%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
345 picks · 523 bans
49%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
338 picks · 220 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 40%
Hero pool strength53% Felt
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Felt
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:41
Felt 61%Penguins Squad 39%
The model gave 61% on Felt — the game was taken by Penguins Squad in 37:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinArms
49% · 151 game51% · 83 games
Drow RangerSnow-
Drow Ranger
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFayde
55% · 232 games41% · 260 games
MarsSatoshi-
Mars
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsolji
50% · 103 games52% · 226 games
MiranaCrawler
Mirana
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenShoe
53% · 163 games49% · 329 games
TuskIfrit
Tusk
Clockwerk
ClockwerkChen
51% · 249 games
Game 2prediction correct44:22
Felt 63%Penguins Squad 37%
The model gave 63% on Felt — the game was taken by Felt in 35:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetArms
51% · 171 game48% · 42 games
AlchemistSnow-
Alchemist
Axe
AxeFayde
52% · 13 games54% · 146 games
Primal BeastSatoshi-
Primal Beast
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsolji
46% · 229 games49% · 198 games
Crystal MaidenIfrit
Crystal Maiden
Disruptor
DisruptorShoe
52% · 152 games46% · 414 games
RubickCrawler
Rubick
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorChen
53% · 235 games
Game 3prediction missed35:46
Felt 61%Penguins Squad 39%
The model gave 61% on Felt — the game was taken by Penguins Squad in 44:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycan
LycanFayde
51% · 85 games50% · 217 games
Monkey KingSnow-
Monkey King
Ursa
UrsaArms
56% · 122 games45% · 168 games
TimbersawSatoshi-
Timbersaw
Pangolier
Pangoliersolji
47% · 238 games50% · 418 games
TuskCrawler
Tusk
Snapfire
SnapfireChen
55% · 245 games37% · 94 games
JakiroIfrit
Jakiro
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorShoe
61% · 207 games
Model check result
Model favoriteFelt · 67%
Series resultPenguins Squad 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3