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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Северная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Feltloss 1:2
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team DogChampwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Felt

Axe
Axe
Zore · 2 games
50%
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
solji · 2 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Zore · 2 games
100%
Anti-Mage
Anti-Mageoften banned
Kom4rt · 1 game
100%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
solji · 1 game
0%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
Kom4rt · 1 game
100%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
solji · 1 game
100%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
Zore · 1 game
0%

Team DogChamp

Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
yarintheslayer · 3 games
100%
Mars
Marsoften banned
lukiluki · 3 games
67%
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
lukiluki · 3 games
0%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Bloody Nine · 3 games
100%
Rubick
Rubick
Bloody Nine · 3 games
67%
Enchantress
Enchantress
Bloody Nine · 2 games
50%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Bloody Nine · 2 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Fayde · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
250 picks · 523 bans
56%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
234 picks · 281 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
207 picks · 380 bans
48%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
199 picks · 154 bans
49%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
170 picks · 294 bans
57%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
165 picks · 524 bans
58%
Phoenix
Phoenix
165 picks · 190 bans
57%
Wraith King
Wraith King
158 picks · 210 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 54%
Hero pool strength53% Team DogChamp
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Felt
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:21
Felt 52%Team DogChamp 48%
The model gave 52% on Felt — the game was taken by Felt in 39:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsolji
45% · 12 games49% · 11 games
Wraith KingFayde
Wraith King
Slark
SlarkKom4rt
55% · 10 games57% · 3 games
Tidehunterlukiluki
Tidehunter
Axe
AxeZore
59% · 9 games40% · 6 games
Rubickyarintheslayer
Rubick
48% · 11 games
PuckBloody Nine
Puck
Game 2prediction missed20:33
Felt 50%Team DogChamp 50%
The model gave 50% on Felt — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 41:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerKom4rt
41% · 30 games53% · 16 games
LycanFayde
Lycan
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyersolji
30% · 30 games66% · 50 games
PuckBloody Nine
Puck
Mars
MarsZore
47% · 64 games51% · 16 games
Sand Kinglukiluki
Sand King
60% · 42 games
Rubickyarintheslayer
Rubick
Game 3prediction missed8:37
Felt 51%Team DogChamp 49%
The model gave 51% on Felt — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 33:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusasolji
49% · 14 gameslittle data
RazorFayde
Razor
Ursa
UrsaKom4rt
42% · 25 games51% · 18 games
Marslukiluki
Mars
Axe
AxeZore
57% · 3 games63% · 18 games
Earthshakeryarintheslayer
Earthshaker
43% · 6 games
EnchantressBloody Nine
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteFelt · 56%
Series resultTeam DogChamp 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3