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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Feltloss 0:2
series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team DogChampwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Felt

Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Fayde · 6 games
33%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
paradise' · 5 games
40%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Fayde · 4 games
0%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
The Warden · 4 games
25%
Marci
Marcioften banned
The Warden · 4 games
50%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
paradise' · 4 games
75%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Fayde · 3 games
33%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Chen · 3 games
0%

Team DogChamp

Invoker
Invokeroften banned
RCY · 13 games
54%
Marci
Marcisignature
yarintheslayer · 9 games
67%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Bloody Nine · 8 games
63%
Tinker
Tinkersignature
RCY · 8 games
75%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
ITALIANO GANGSTA · 7 games
86%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Bloody Nine · 7 games
71%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
ITALIANO GANGSTA · 7 games
43%
Techies
Techies
yarintheslayer · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
426 picks · 433 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
416 picks · 280 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
411 picks · 389 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
312 picks · 318 bans
53%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
275 picks · 327 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
250 picks · 133 bans
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
227 picks · 593 bans
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
223 picks · 155 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 36%
Hero pool strength61% Team DogChamp
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total70% Team DogChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:43
Felt 39%Team DogChamp 61%
The model gave 61% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 39:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenBerna
52% · 72 games48% · 147 games
Nature's ProphetITALIANO GANGSTA
Nature's Prophet
Enigma
EnigmaFayde
56% · 159 games54% · 122 games
PudgeYuma
Pudge
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsolji
48% · 221 game46% · 177 games
BatriderRCY
Batrider
Hoodwink
HoodwinkShoe
49% · 154 games47% · 154 games
Silenceryarintheslayer
Silencer
Rubick
RubickChen
45% · 230 games55% · 236 games
ClockwerkBloody Nine
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct34:54
Felt 38%Team DogChamp 62%
The model gave 62% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 52:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightBerna
51% · 110 games48% · 244 games
Monkey KingYuma
Monkey King
Leshrac
Leshracsolji
50% · 114 games56% · 167 games
Nature's ProphetITALIANO GANGSTA
Nature's Prophet
Dark Seer
Dark SeerFayde
55% · 49 games42% · 170 games
ZeusRCY
Zeus
Tiny
TinyChen
49% · 494 games49% · 75 games
Techiesyarintheslayer
Techies
Rubick
RubickShoe
50% · 196 games51% · 307 games
ClockwerkBloody Nine
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam DogChamp · 70%
Series resultTeam DogChamp 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2