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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Feltloss 1:2
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team DogChampwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Felt

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Fayde · 12 games
67%
Mirana
Mirana
solji · 11 games
55%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
albinozebra · 10 games
70%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Berna · 9 games
89%
Rubick
Rubick
solji · 8 games
38%
Tiny
Tiny
solji · 8 games
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Chen · 8 games
75%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
Berna · 7 games
43%

Team DogChamp

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Bloody Nine · 19 games
74%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
RCY · 13 games
54%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
RCY · 11 games
73%
Techies
Techiessignature
yarintheslayer · 10 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
ITALIANO GANGSTA · 8 games
88%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
RCY · 8 games
50%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
FrancisLee · 8 games
63%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Bloody Nine · 8 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
761 picks · 603 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
548 picks · 464 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
421 picks · 997 bans
58%
Tiny
Tiny
419 picks · 379 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
395 picks · 932 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
393 picks · 668 bans
54%
Undying
Undying
390 picks · 599 bans
49%
Doom
Doom
387 picks · 587 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 58%
Hero pool strength52% Team DogChamp
Head-to-head1 – 4
Model total58% Team DogChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:9
Felt 47%Team DogChamp 53%
The model gave 53% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Felt in 33:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaBerna
59% · 103 games50% · 201 game
DoomSpeeed
Doom
Underlord
UnderlordFayde
52% · 120 games51% · 121 game
Ursadnm
Ursa
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeralbinozebra
42% · 31 game52% · 117 games
Storm Spiritred2
Storm Spirit
Rubick
Rubicksolji
47% · 472 games50% · 108 games
Skywrath MageMoOz
Skywrath Mage
41% · 179 games
UndyingBloody Nine
Undying
Game 2prediction correct15:31
Felt 46%Team DogChamp 54%
The model gave 54% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 43:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightBerna
54% · 144 games44% · 148 games
Terrorbladednm
Terrorblade
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFayde
51% · 357 games55% · 222 games
DoomSpeeed
Doom
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsolji
52% · 141 game44% · 116 games
Kunkkared2
Kunkka
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magealbinozebra
50% · 127 games45% · 42 games
EarthshakerMoOz
Earthshaker
52% · 241 game
ClockwerkBloody Nine
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction correct16:44
Felt 43%Team DogChamp 57%
The model gave 57% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 53:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerBerna
41% · 54 games54% · 137 games
Terrorbladednm
Terrorblade
Underlord
UnderlordFayde
44% · 68 games62% · 154 games
Puckred2
Puck
Rubick
Rubicksolji
41% · 350 games66% · 24 games
Witch DoctorSpeeed
Witch Doctor
Lich
Lichalbinozebra
47% · 71 game53% · 47 games
Bounty HunterMoOz
Bounty Hunter
54% · 181 game
Crystal MaidenBloody Nine
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam DogChamp · 58%
Series resultTeam DogChamp 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3