Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Feltloss 0:2series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The Cutwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Felt
Kunkkaoften banned
Zore · 7 games
Bane
Steelborco · 3 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
solji · 3 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Steelborco · 2 games
Disruptor
Steelborco · 2 games
Marsoften banned
Zore · 2 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Steelborco · 2 games
Morphlingoften banned
Kom4rt · 2 games
The Cut
Snapfire
Giant · 5 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 4 games
Marsoften banned
dnm · 3 games
Night Stalkeroften banned
dnm · 2 games
Spirit Breakeroften banned
dnm · 2 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 2 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Scourge McDuck · 1 game
Dark Willow
Giant · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
374 picks · 272 bans
Mars
372 picks · 535 bans
Snapfire
324 picks · 202 bans
Weaver
314 picks · 720 bans
Queen of Pain
265 picks · 337 bans
Disruptor
242 picks · 153 bans
Ember Spirit
240 picks · 311 bans
Io
234 picks · 604 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 75%
Hero pool strength58% The Cut
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total71% The Cut
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:34
Felt 36%The Cut 64%
The model gave 64% on The Cut — the game was taken by The Cut in 42:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom LancerKom4rt
BristlebackScourge McDuck
Shadow Fiendsolji
Beastmasterdnm
AxeZore
Shadow DemonGiant
Witch DoctorSteelborco
Game 2prediction correct20:47
Felt 35%The Cut 65%
The model gave 65% on The Cut — the game was taken by The Cut in 41:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-MageKom4rt
Templar AssassinScourge McDuck
Ember Spiritsolji
Marsdnm
TimbersawZore
SnapfireGiant
Ogre MagiSteelborco
Model check result
Model favoriteThe Cut · 71%
Series resultThe Cut 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2