Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Северная Америка · BO1
result vs prediction
Feltloss 0:1series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:1
The Cutwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Felt
Weaveroften banned
Zore · 12 games
Tinysignature
AfrOmoush · 9 games
Axe
Zore · 7 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
solji · 6 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Zore · 5 games
Huskaroften banned
Yellow Flash · 5 games
Kunkkaoften banned
solji · 4 games
Medusaoften banned
solji · 4 games
The Cut
Skywrath Mage
bgod · 12 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 10 games
Techies
bgod · 9 games
Bane
Overlom · 8 games
Necrophosoften banned
high_shaggy · 7 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 7 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 7 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
595 picks · 456 bans
Mars
419 picks · 646 bans
Puck
407 picks · 865 bans
Dragon Knight
393 picks · 514 bans
Bane
371 picks · 250 bans
Snapfire
340 picks · 167 bans
Ember Spirit
332 picks · 619 bans
Pangolier
309 picks · 539 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 19%
Hero pool strength57% Felt
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total50% The Cut
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:33
Felt 51%The Cut 49%
The model gave 51% on Felt — the game was taken by The Cut in 31:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knightsolji
ClinkzScourge McDuck
RazorFayde
TimbersawRajjix
Night StalkerZore
Puckhigh_shaggy
ViperShoe
DawnbreakerJubei
53% · 16 games
Techiesbgod
Model check result
Model favoriteThe Cut · 50%
Series resultThe Cut 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 1