Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Feltloss 0:2series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Wildcard Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Felt
Axesignature
Zore · 10 games
Tinysignature
AfrOmoush · 8 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
solji · 7 games
Huskaroften banned
Yellow Flash · 5 games
Weaveroften banned
Zore · 5 games
Death Prophetoften banned
solji · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
solji · 4 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Zore · 4 games
Wildcard Gaming
Grimstrokesignature
The Warden · 10 games
Marsoften banned
Sunlight · 9 games
Snapfire
The Warden · 8 games
Storm Spiritsignature
iAnnihilate · 8 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
Ark · 7 games
Hoodwink
The Warden · 7 games
Medusasignature
Ark · 7 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Sunlight · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
464 picks · 637 bans
Tiny
450 picks · 434 bans
Bane
446 picks · 269 bans
Sand King
409 picks · 560 bans
Storm Spirit
397 picks · 639 bans
Dragon Knight
394 picks · 477 bans
Pangolier
358 picks · 555 bans
Keeper of the Light
331 picks · 656 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 55%
Hero pool strength55% Felt
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Wildcard Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct2:32
Felt 31%Wildcard Gaming 69%
The model gave 69% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 22:22.
Game 2prediction correct16:45
Felt 31%Wildcard Gaming 69%
The model gave 69% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 35:05.
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard Gaming · 69%
Series resultWildcard Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2