Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Китай. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
FH Gamingloss 0:2series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Supernovawin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
FH Gaming
Dazzle
斗圣 · 2 games
Disruptor
斗圣 · 2 games
Lich
斗圣 · 2 games
Mirana
斗圣 · 1 game
Undyingoften banned
斗圣 · 1 game
Supernova
Hoodwink
sheep · 2 games
Mirana
sheep · 1 game
Snapfire
sheep · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
353 picks · 265 bans
Marci
308 picks · 554 bans
Tusk
283 picks · 215 bans
Undying
280 picks · 468 bans
Pangolier
247 picks · 450 bans
Primal Beast
235 picks · 525 bans
Shadow Fiend
220 picks · 307 bans
Crystal Maiden
211 picks · 110 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% FH Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% FH Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:39
FH Gaming 51%Supernova 49%
The model gave 51% on FH Gaming — the game was taken by Supernova in 32:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lich斗圣
Hoodwinksheep
Game 2prediction missed13:27
FH Gaming 55%Supernova 45%
The model gave 55% on FH Gaming — the game was taken by Supernova in 33:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dazzle斗圣
Hoodwinksheep
Model check result
Model favoriteFH Gaming · 56%
Series resultSupernova 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2