IESF World Esports Championship 2024 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Филиппины
No games played over 6 months.
Греция
Beastmasteroften banned
SkyLark · 1 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
Focus · 1 game
Lich
SsaSpartan · 1 game
Puckoften banned
ThuG · 1 game
Tinyoften banned
dEsire · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
477 picks · 652 bans
Clockwerk
412 picks · 455 bans
Pangolier
350 picks · 517 bans
Luna
348 picks · 435 bans
Enchantress
320 picks · 644 bans
Dark Willow
319 picks · 171 bans
Dragon Knight
317 picks · 389 bans
Batrider
292 picks · 302 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 57%
Hero pool strength56% Филиппины
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Филиппины
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:42
Филиппины 57%Греция 43%
The model gave 57% on Филиппины — the game was taken by Греция in 43:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Snipercml
BristlebackFocus
BeastmasterTino-
Queen of PainThuG
RubickShanks
EnigmaSkyLark
47% · 145 games
TuskdEsire
48% · 209 games
Crystal MaidenSsaSpartan
Game 2prediction correct44:16
Филиппины 57%Греция 43%
The model gave 57% on Филиппины — the game was taken by Филиппины in 40:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
InvokerTino-
LunaFocus
Death Prophetcml
PuckThuG
MarciShanks
Centaur WarrunnerSkyLark
50% · 105 games
HoodwinkdEsire
55% · 67 games
Shadow DemonSsaSpartan
Game 3prediction missed27:35
Филиппины 59%Греция 41%
The model gave 59% on Филиппины — the game was taken by Греция in 50:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Enchantresscml
Shadow FiendFocus
InvokerTino-
LycanSkyLark
LeshracShanks
Ember SpiritThuG
53% · 70 games
MuertadEsire
52% · 187 games
ClockwerkSsaSpartan
Model check result
Model favoriteФилиппины · 66%
Series resultГреция 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3