?
arrow_backBack to match
European Pro League Season 38 · BO3
result vs prediction
Flame Esportswin 1:0
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Nande+4loss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Flame Esports

Rubick
Rubick
Jeezy · 10 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
emptiness · 5 games
60%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Stoic · 4 games
25%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Jeezy · 4 games
50%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
Deles · 3 games
67%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Stoic · 3 games
67%
Tusk
Tusk
Stoic · 3 games
67%
Windranger
Windranger
legacy · 3 games
33%

Nande+4

Kez
Kezoften banned
Nande · 2 games
50%
Viper
Viperoften banned
Mo13ei · 2 games
50%
Bane
Bane
Kidaro · 1 game
0%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Palantimos · 1 game
100%
Lich
Lich
Kidaro · 1 game
0%
Lone Druid
Lone Druidoften banned
Nande · 1 game
0%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
Palantimos · 1 game
0%
Rubick
Rubick
armageddon · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
636 picks · 435 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
565 picks · 314 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
482 picks · 585 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
454 picks · 389 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
437 picks · 654 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
350 picks · 529 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
349 picks · 1027 bans
58%
Tusk
Tusk
343 picks · 299 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 25%
Hero pool strength51% Flame Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Flame Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Flame Esports 52%Nande+4 48%
The model gave 52% on Flame Esports — the game was taken by Flame Esports.
Model check result
Model favoriteFlame Esports · 52%
Series resultFlame Esports 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1