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PGL Wallachia Season 6. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Flamewin 2:1
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:1
AllStarsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Flame

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
S1RENM · 4 games
75%
Huskar
Huskaroften banned
Adrx · 3 games
67%
Luna
Luna
Argius · 2 games
50%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
S1RENM · 2 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristleback
Adrx · 1 game
100%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Adrx · 1 game
0%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Argius · 1 game
100%
Leshrac
Leshrac
S1RENM · 1 game
100%

AllStars

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Benjimon · 7 games
29%
Mars
Marsoften banned
blessed kid · 7 games
29%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Asao · 7 games
29%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
FeelinG · 5 games
0%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Asao · 5 games
40%
Omniknight
Omniknight
blessed kid · 5 games
40%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Benjimon · 5 games
20%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Benjimon · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
435 picks · 405 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
415 picks · 210 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
347 picks · 911 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
325 picks · 366 bans
53%
Warlock
Warlock
289 picks · 143 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
285 picks · 226 bans
49%
Batrider
Batrider
278 picks · 668 bans
53%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
278 picks · 844 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 40%
Hero pool strength60% Flame
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total56% AllStars
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:27
Flame 48%AllStars 52%
The model gave 52% on AllStars — the game was taken by AllStars in 32:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterArgius
48% · 152 games69% · 21 game
Troll WarlordbsK7-
Troll Warlord
Void Spirit
Void SpiritS1RENM
51% · 85 games46% · 69 games
Queen of PainBenjimon
Queen of Pain
Huskar
HuskarAdrx
50% · 26 games50% · 31 game
Axeblessed kid
Axe
53% · 71 game
JakiroAccel
Jakiro
43% · 71 game
HoodwinkAsao
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct41:16
Flame 51%AllStars 49%
The model gave 51% on Flame — the game was taken by Flame in 34:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tinker
TinkerAdrx
53% · 51 game58% · 21 game
Anti-MagebsK7-
Anti-Mage
Clinkz
ClinkzArgius
53% · 44 games51% · 152 games
Ember SpiritBenjimon
Ember Spirit
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritS1RENM
47% · 357 games48% · 179 games
Beastmasterblessed kid
Beastmaster
49% · 53 games
EnchantressAccel
Enchantress
47% · 47 games
LionAsao
Lion
Game 3prediction correct34:39
Flame 51%AllStars 49%
The model gave 51% on Flame — the game was taken by Flame in 49:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendS1RENM
47% · 227 games47% · 99 games
GyrocopterbsK7-
Gyrocopter
Viper
ViperAdrx
52% · 46 games47% · 106 games
Dragon KnightBenjimon
Dragon Knight
Ursa
UrsaArgius
53% · 179 games50% · 50 games
Primal Beastblessed kid
Primal Beast
53% · 116 games
TuskAccel
Tusk
51% · 81 game
HoodwinkAsao
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteAllStars · 56%
Series resultFlame 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3