DreamLeague Season 22. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs predictionFFlawlessloss 0:1
series probability
14%86%
probability at match start · final 0:1
KZ TEAMwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Flawless
No games played over 6 months.
KZ TEAM
Grimstrokeoften banned
SsaSpartan · 17 games
Rubick
dEsire · 16 games
Muertaoften banned
Astral · 14 games
Oracle
SsaSpartan · 13 games
Shadow Demon
SsaSpartan · 13 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Otaker · 12 games
Pangoliersignature
W1sh- · 11 games
Vengeful Spirit
SsaSpartan · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
270 picks · 445 bans
Phoenix
245 picks · 389 bans
Centaur Warrunner
240 picks · 322 bans
Muerta
225 picks · 317 bans
Dark Willow
216 picks · 102 bans
Tusk
215 picks · 204 bans
Treant Protector
195 picks · 368 bans
Nature's Prophet
193 picks · 485 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 62%
Hero pool strength52% KZ TEAM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total86% KZ TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:19
Flawless 14%KZ TEAM 86%
The model gave 86% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 29:11.
Model check result
Model favoriteKZ TEAM · 86%
Series resultKZ TEAM 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1