Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionFEFLUX Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 0:2
RZ Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
FLUX Esports
No games played over 6 months.
RZ Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
342 picks · 303 bans
Tusk
279 picks · 254 bans
Marci
273 picks · 521 bans
Undying
252 picks · 452 bans
Pangolier
236 picks · 507 bans
Primal Beast
221 picks · 549 bans
Shadow Fiend
213 picks · 318 bans
Crystal Maiden
204 picks · 116 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 43%
Hero pool strength50% FLUX Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% FLUX Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:50
FLUX Esports 65%RZ Esports 35%
The model gave 65% on FLUX Esports — the game was taken by RZ Esports in 45:26.
Game 2prediction missed28:56
FLUX Esports 65%RZ Esports 35%
The model gave 65% on FLUX Esports — the game was taken by RZ Esports in 56:01.
Model check result
Model favoriteFLUX Esports · 65%
Series resultRZ Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2