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ESL One Bangkok 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Fluxloss 0:1
series probability
14%86%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Flux

Doom
Doomoften banned
laise · 2 games
50%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
young G · 2 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
ariel · 2 games
50%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
young G · 2 games
0%
Batrider
Batrider
333 · 1 game
0%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
7jesu · 1 game
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
young G · 1 game
0%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
7jesu · 1 game
0%

Natus Vincere Junior

Lion
Lion
Riddys · 21 game
52%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 18 games
61%
Rubick
Rubick
Daze · 17 games
53%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Niku · 16 games
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Riddys · 14 games
43%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
pma · 13 games
62%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Niku · 13 games
46%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Niku · 13 games
46%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
422 picks · 525 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
371 picks · 362 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
321 picks · 447 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
311 picks · 362 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
300 picks · 568 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
272 picks · 144 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
260 picks · 345 bans
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
255 picks · 945 bans
60%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 54%
Hero pool strength59% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total86% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Flux 14%Natus Vincere Junior 86%
The model gave 86% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior.
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 86%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1